US Treasury Curve Steepener Loading... : Investor Sentiment and Bull/Bear Views
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16:54
Aug 19
Aug 19
Buy Treasury steepener on buyback signal.
The Treasury's buyback expansion is a strong signaling event that calms long-end rate pressure and revives risk appetite; the most popular trade is a Treasury curve steepener, with a massive squeeze as crowded long-end shorts unwind before Jackson Hole.
HIGH
07:52
Jul 30
Jul 30
Fed credibility loss steepens yield curve
The same Fed credibility loss is bad for long-dated bonds and will cause the yield curve to steepen further. The market will continue to punish long-end bonds until the Fed's communication and authority get back on track.
HIGH
06:33
Feb 10
Feb 10
Curve steepener is focal allocation trade
Aidan expects the front end of the US Treasury curve to remain anchored by Fed rate-cut pricing while the long end stays pressured by fiscal concerns and Fed uncertainty, making a curve steepener one of his focal asset-allocation trades this year.
HIGH
21:29
Feb 06
Feb 06
Stay long Treasury curve steepener.
The front end is more anchored by Fed policy, while the long end remains closer to cycle highs because of Washington policy uncertainty, potential inflation, and Treasury supply. He says the curve-steepening trade is still on in portfolios and prefers betting on a steeper curve over calling near-term rate direction.
HIGH
22:59
Feb 05
Feb 05
Warsh communication risk steepens Treasury curve
Warsh has favored less Fed communication. If a Warsh-led Fed retrenches from overcommunication, interest-rate and currency markets could become more volatile, investors could demand more risk premium for duration, and if they were previously comfortable holding longer-duration Treasuries because they trusted the Fed path, this could lead to a steeper US Treasury curve.
MED
11:54
Feb 05
Feb 05
Back-end supply supports curve steepener.
The Treasury refunding announcement appears back-end loaded, with more supply at the long end. That should keep upward pressure on long-end yields relative to shorter maturities and support continuation of the curve steepener trade.
LOW
11:49
Feb 03
Feb 03
Fed ambiguity favors Treasury curve steepener.
With a Warsh-led Fed, there is ambiguity between his hawkish history and recent dovish alignment with the administration. She is leaning into curve steepening: balance-sheet restraint tends to lift long-end yields relative to front-end yields, and U.S. fiscal dynamics add to the case for a steeper curve.
HIGH
12:00
Feb 02
Feb 02
Favor steeper yield curves
She wants to lean on steeper curves because a Warsh-led Fed may mean less forward guidance or balance-sheet reduction, bond markets will demand more term premium, and inflation risk is not reflected in current pricing.
MED
09:57
Feb 02
Feb 02
US curve steepener favored on Warsh
The market is assuming Kevin Warsh will deliver lower short-term interest rates while keeping the Fed's balance sheet in check, which should keep steepening the U.S. curve toward 2011-2012 levels; he thinks steepening trades make sense and expects short-term rate cuts a couple of times in Q2, but warns that long rates rise during the steepening, and that government and corporate funding needs plus capex will put upward pressure on yields and pressure on the Fed to expand the balance sheet again by Q3/Q4.
HIGH
23:39
Jan 30
Jan 30
Steepener: long front-end duration, long-end pressure.
Kevin Warsh's nomination is likely to keep the Treasury curve steeper because he is less willing to use the Fed's balance sheet/QE, which markets read as hawkish for the long end, while supporting lower front-end rates. Whalen agrees inflation is yesterday's battle, expects the Fed to cut more aggressively by May, and prefers duration at the short end; long-end pressure could be mitigated by Treasury buybacks, swaps, or front-end issuance.
HIGH
15:30
Jan 22
Jan 22
Long US curve steepeners
He is long US curve steepeners as one of his alpha trades right now. With more cuts than priced likely coming at the front end, the question is whether the long end rallies with it or underperforms; he thinks the odds are the long end must underperform given global financing needs and bond supply, and he likes steepeners of both flavors, whether bear steepening or bull steepening depending on the next Fed chair.
HIGH
12:09
Jan 12
Jan 12
Fed risk lifts long-term yields
The DOJ pressure on the Fed threatens independence and is not priced into inflation or term premium. Even if Powell does not flinch, pressure can change the Fed's reaction function, keep term premium elevated, and lead to a steeper curve and higher long-term rates, which raises the cost of equity.
HIGH
20:07
Jan 09
Jan 09
Curve steepeners offer dual risk hedge
Investors still like curve steepeners because they offer dual risk protection: the front end benefits if a downturn forces rate cuts, while long-end yields could rise if there is a scare about Fed independence, deficits, or supply. Positioning is light relative to last year.
HIGH
20:30
Jan 07
Jan 07
Yield curve likely steepens
With a new Fed chair likely to push rates lower, front-end yields may fall, but the long end may not react well, making a yield-curve steepener an interesting macro trade.
MED
21:30
Apr 16
Apr 16
US curve steepener on Fed cuts
Once the Fed begins cutting, the curve historically tends to steepen, and continued term-premium concerns should keep long-end yields elevated relative to front-end yields. DoubleLine is implementing curve steepeners and favors the front end/belly over the back end.
HIGH
About US Treasury Curve Steepener Investor Commentary
Across the available history and selected sources, Buzzberg tracks US Treasury Curve Steepener across 4 sources: 15 bullish vs 0 bearish calls from 15 authors. Historical directional balance: 100% = 100 × (bullish − bearish) / all deduplicated idea records, including other directions. This is neither a probability of a price rise nor the share of bullish authors. 15 total trade ideas tracked. Latest voices: Michael Ball, Mark Cudmore, Aidan Yao.